Thursday, August 6, 2009

13-10? C'mon now...

While doing my daily roundabouts on Six Pack, Bulldawg Junction, and Gene's Page, I came across a post (from a user that I will leave anonymous) that was predicting the score of the opener against JSU. HER honest to God prediction was that we would win 13-10. Now, I'm a pessimist myself, but that's going a tad bit overboard.

I'm not a feminist. But it was a woman that predicted that. I understand that women can love sports, too. But, that proves they don't have the same capacity for understanding the ins and outs of the world of college football like us men do. Much the same way I am about fashion, interior design, and PMS.

In defense of her, I will say that as a State fan, she has a right to think that. And I see where she's coming from. Hell, after 5 years of Croom I'm nervous about this game too. The truth of the matter is that we SHOULD not struggle with JSU. Not saying it won't happen. We'll cover the reasons for her misunderstanding first.

Point 1. We did once lose to Maine in football, not hockey. Couple that with losses to the likes of Troy State, Tulane, Houston twice (three times after this season), La Tech, and UAB. I can see the womanly reason for doubt against JSU. However, each of those teams I just named would soundly beat JSU by 3 or 4 touchdowns. SWAC football is no where near close to C-USA or the WAC. Jackson State did get pummelled by Delta State just 2 seasons ago. They will not stand a chance against an SEC program, even a bottom tier one like us.
Point 2. Croom. After watching the train wreck offense we ran under that buffoon, I can see the reason for doubting us to score less than 14. However, even the Croomster himself could manage 40-45 points against JSU. Add in the fact that we have a head coach now that understands, at least, the basic principles of offense, we should hang half a hundred or more on these guys.
Point 3. She is a woman. She doesn't understand the differences in levels of talent between D-1A and D-1AA. Much less between the SEC and the SWAC. JSU's best 2 players are transfers from, well, Mississippi State. And one of them isn't able to play the first game. The other would be 4th on our depth chart at quarterback.

Anyway, enough bashing that poor poster. She now knows, I think. Now on to my prediction...

First off, if we struggle with JSU, meaning win by less than 2 or 3 touchdowns, then that will be the only game we win all year. If we beat them by less than 7, it may as well be a loss. If we lose, I will not attend another game this season and will seriously recommend we give up football. This game should not even be close. Maine would beat JSU by 4 or 5 tds. I mean Delta State slobberknocked them.

For once, I think we might beat a D-1AA team soundly like the LSUs and Floridas do. I'm talking by 50 or so. In all seriousness, we should score as many as we want and they should score as many as we want them to have. Mullen should be able to choose a score and our guys go out there and make him a prophet. No way does this compare to the La Tech game from last year. Tech would put 35 to 40 up on JSU and would hold JSU under 10.

The main reason we will win, and win by many, is simply talent. JSU might have 4 or 5 guys that would make our travel roster. That's it. They aren't an Appalachian State. (As a matter of fact, if we were playing App State, I would predict a loss.)

We won't use everything we've got. Mullen will/should hold some stuff back to keep off film for the next few opponents. Starters should be out of the game with 7 or 8 minutes left in the third. The second team should hold JSU at bay for a while and, perhaps, put up a few scores themselves. Finally, in the fourth we will see some of our touted freshman class finish it out with a score or two.

We will be winning by the score of 31-0 at halftime (31-3 barring a fumble on our opening drive because of jitters). Tyson will have a career day, throwing for 3 TDs and somewhere around 220 yards. Elliot and Ducre will each have a score and about 50 yards each. Elliot's TD will be a run of 40 or more yards. Charles Mitchell will have a pick and a decent return or 30 or so yards. Pernell McPhee and Sean Ferguson will each have a sack. While Chris White earns his stripes with a huge hit on a JSU slot receiver running a slant route. We should be able to pull the starters midway through the 3rd while up 45-3. After Relf and Russell get some reps and Choo Choo gets his swag on, we should win somewhere around 59-6. I'll give Rutland a long pass into our redzone against our 3rd string corners to set up that last field goal. Frosh d-end Fletcher Cox will record 2 sacks in the fourth to signal to the student section that it's time to leave. That's about it.

Now I want y'all to understand that this blowout will not be something to get too excited about. JSU really is nothing at all to what we will be facing the rest of our home games. Mississippi would put up 80 on the Tigers. We aren't near as good as them. This blowout is simply just the start of a 5 win season for us. And, for the record, everything I said in my prediction is simply what SHOULD happen. Now if we have about 6 or 7 ACLs torn in the first quarter, ole girl's prediction up there may come true, or close. Fact of the matter is, we will not lose to Jackson State. With or without AD. Even with Croom as coach, we might could win by 3 touchdowns.